El Nino’s Potential  Effects on Crops in 2016

2016 Nebraska Crop Yields

There’s no question that this spring’s planting season continues to be a long, drawn out process, due mostly to increased rainfall activity that has prevented farmers from getting into the fields for more than a day or two at a time. This is largely attributable to the strongest El Niño weather pattern on record since 1997. El Niño is the term used when equatorial-region Pacific Ocean temperatures reach a level of 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal for a sustained period of at least several months. In an El Niño year, those in the central section of the US can expect warmer than average temperatures combined with above average precipitation.

While climate experts did predict a warmer, wetter spring, they were half right, at least here in Nebraska: Nebraska farmers have dealt with higher than normal rainfall, but the warmer temperatures have yet to materialize, despite warmer temperatures in the first half of March.

So how will this strong El Niño pattern continue to affect corn and soybeans during the growing season? Will the strong weather pattern have an impact on corn and soybean yields and a shift in the planting window?

A team of climate scientists set out to try to better understand the potential impacts that El Niño could have on agriculture production in the Midwest, focusing on potential effects on corn and soybeans in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.

What they discovered is that there should be little to no adverse yield-related effects. Of the five strongest El Niño events they looked at, the combined yields during those years were either average or slightly higher. They discovered that much of the weather events attributed to El Niño are hyped up, and that, barring any other sort of unforeseen weather-related events or plant challenges, farmers should be able to expect an average harvest.

Jerry Lehnertz, vice president of lending at AgriBank Farm Credit Bank agrees.

“History shows that it’s uncommon to have subpar national crop production results for corn and soybeans except in the few cases where very hot, dry weather occurs during the critical crop development phase in June and July,” Lehnertz says. “If predictions are correct, this could signal higher-than-expected corn and soybean yields this year.”

As far as marketing and risk management goes, Lehnerz recommends that farmers “adjust marketing and operations plans based on short- and long-range weather forecasts, and ensure [they] have appropriate risk-management tools in place to guard against potentially extreme weather.”

On the other hand, climatologists are seeing indications that the El Niño pattern could rapidly reverse to a strong La Niña pattern. Kyle Tapley, senior agricultural meteorologist for MDA Weather Services says that several models now show full-fledged La Niña conditions by the summer.

Nebraska Associate Climatologist Al Dutcher says, “The big question is when we transition from an El Niño to a La Niña type pattern. That will dictate whether it is a dry year.” According to Dutcher, it’s likely the switch will occur in the second half of the growing season.

Do worries about your agricultural land keep you on edge? Feel free to contact UFARM—we are glad to help you plan for these challenging times in agriculture, while keeping your goals moving forward.UFARM offers a full range of Nebraska land management services, including real estate sales, rural property appraisals, consultations and crop insurance. UFARM has operated in Nebraska since the early 1930’s. Contact us today!

El Niño & La Niña: What’s in Store for Nebraska in 2016?

Nebraska Weather for Farmers

One can analyze interest rates, foreign economies, grain supplies, and input costs all day long, but when it comes to farming, in the end, the old adage is true: It all depends on the weather. As Nebraska farmers plow through the drifts left by Winter Storm Kayla, they’re already thinking about planting season just around the corner, and wondering just what other weather phenomenon may be in store this growing season.

Weather experts continue to talk about the current influences of the strongest El Niño weather pattern on record since 1997. El Niño is the term used when equatorial-region Pacific Ocean temperatures reach a level of 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal for a sustained period of at least several months. In an El Niño year, those in the central section of the US can expect warmer than average temperatures combined with above average precipitation.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently released their outlook for January – March 2016, in terms of expected temperature and precipitation trends. Both of the NOAA’s trend maps reflect seasonal changes that have been found alongside strong El Niño’s of the past, although weather experts point out other numerous factors that influence weather, and caution that these are merely a reflection of past averages.

That being said, should 2016’s strong El Niño influence continue, Nebraska growers can expect a warmer temperature trend and some extra precipitation through March. According to the recently released NOAA weather numbers, the northern tier of the country has a likely chance of seeing temperatures warmer than average. The areas that have the best chances of seeing wetter than normal conditions are in the south and southern half of the plains. For Nebraska farmers, this could mean getting in the fields sooner, though too much precipitation could hinder that work to some extent.

However, as always, other climatologists are seeing indications that the El Niño pattern could rapidly reverse to a strong La Niña pattern beginning in April. Kyle Tapley, senior agricultural meteorologist for MDA Weather Services says that several models now show full-fledged La Niña conditions by the summer.

According to sources at Agweb.com, the overall chance of a La Niña event increases to 40 percent beginning in August and continuing through October of 2016. This could be significant because La Niña tends to bring hotter, drier weather during the growing season, potentially resulting in less favorable growing conditions for grain crops. While no one wants to contend with a lack of precipitation during the summer, the increased likelihood of improved grain prices as a result of potential drought conditions and a significant overall decrease in supply would go a long way to salve those wounds.

Until then, farmers are watching the weather models closely, and beginning to prepare for the 2016 growing season with these things in mind. UFARM offers a full range of Nebraska land management services, including real estate sales, rural property appraisals, consultations and crop insurance. UFARM has operated in Nebraska since the early 1930’s. Contact us today!

Sources consulted: Anderson, Bryce. “El Niño Looms Over 2016 Crop Season.” DTN Progressive Farmer. DTN. 04 Jan. 2016. Web. 04 Feb. 2016.Potter, Ben. “The Transition to La Niña Could Be Speeding Up.” Agweb.com. Farm Journal, Inc. 26 Jan. 2016. Web. 04 Feb. 2016. Sugden, Brad. “Strong El Niño Continues to Influence Heartland Weather.” WOWT.com. WOWT News Omaha. 18 Dec. 2015. Web. 04 Web. 2016.

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How Are Conditions Shaping Up for Spring Planting?

Spring Crop Planting ConditionsIt may seem early to think about spring planting, and the Groundhog may have said 6 more weeks of winter, but that hasn’t stopped farmers from doing just that. Aside from starting to think about getting planting equipment out and geared up for April, farmers and climatologists know that spring weather patterns begin to emerge in January and February, and snow and weather events now can have a large impact on the conditions that they’ll meet in the fields. So, how are spring planting conditions looking for 2015?

According to the latest University of Nebraska Extension Ag Climate Update, most areas in the state reported below normal precipitation for the month. This is despite the much-needed moisture that came toward the end of the month with the snow that blanketed most of the area. January also saw some mighty temperature swings, where many areas of the state had below zero temps at the start of the month, and 60-70 degree temps by the fourth week.

While no one complains about 60 degree January weather, the end-of-the-month snow brought with it much-needed moisture to the state, and the snow cover does help to improve soil moisture and to protect winter crops from subsequent extreme cold temperatures.

As far as soil moisture across the state goes, the soil moisture at the beginning of February was higher than the January average. The soil temperature values were also higher. This is thanks mostly due to the end of January snowfall after the warm-up, which allowed the snow to fall on warmer ground. This, in turn, allowed the snow to soak into the ground and prevented surface run-off. Hopefully this extra moisture will prove beneficial come planting season.

The water levels of Lake McConaughy and mountain snowpack amounts play a crucial role when it comes to surface water across the state as well, according to the UNL Extension. The current water level at Lake McConaughy is at 75% of capacity, 14 feet higher than it was a year ago at this time. The inflows for this time of year are just above normal, and the snowpack percentage for Wyoming and Colorado are 70-110% of normal. The Extension notes that, while snowpack for March and April often has a greater impact, the lack of extreme dryness now is good moving into spring.

While the recent snowfall, lake levels and mountain snowpack all paint a more favorable picture as far as soil moisture goes, state climatologists still acknowledge that resources are still recovering from 2012’s drought. While gains have certainly been made, the state drought level monitor indicates that most of the state is still in the “abnormally dry” category.

Looking ahead, the long-term forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center predict a higher probability for above normal temperatures for the western half of the US for February, including Nebraska. The precipitation forecast, however, could go either way, and models are not telling us if we can expect greater rainfall amounts for the end of the winter and early spring or not.

Do you have questions about crop choices being made on your farm? Please don’t hesitate to contact a UFARM professional; we are happy to advise you.  UFARM offers a full range of Nebraska land management services, including real estate sales, rural property appraisals, consultations and crop insurance. UFARM has operated in Nebraska since the early 1930’s. Contact us today!

 

Sources consulted:  Williams, Tyler. “Nebraska Ag Climate Update.” University of Nebraska-Lincoln Cropwatch. University of Nebraska-Lincoln Ag Extension. 06 Feb. 2015. Web. 17 Feb. 2015.

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What will El Nino hold for Nebraska Harvest?

Nebraska Harvest WeatherOver the last several months, meteorologists have been duking it out over the chances of an El Nino occurring, and the ways this could affect Nebraska harvest weather, and the winter and spring to follow.

An El Nino occurs when the Pacific Ocean surface waters warm up to above normal temperatures—usually about one degree Celsius above average. This rise in temperature alters the atmospheric pressure over the Pacific Basin, which in turn alters the jet streams over the United States. Those whose livelihoods depend a lot on the weather understand that jet streams are the driving force behind the storm systems and temperature boundaries that affect our regions. El Nino weather patterns in past years have had an impact on Midwest growing seasons and yields, so it is no wonder that farmers pay attention when such a pattern may be in the works.

How does El Nino usually affect Nebraska? While most of El Nino effects are not felt until the following calendar year, it usually means higher than normal winter temperatures and precipitation, although the effects aren’t quite as clear as they are in other parts of the country. It is generally accepted that an El Nino weather pattern is favorable for US grown crops, since in addition to slightly warmer temps and above average winter precipitation, it brings more precipitation during the summer months as well.

So, what’s the verdict? While there was a 70% chance of an El Nino weather pattern back in June, it appears that weather experts have backed off that prediction some, to just 50%. Should El Nino still develop before the year is out, it is unlikely to be a strong event. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology: “Despite the tropical Pacific Ocean being primed for an El Niño during much of the first half of 2014, the atmosphere above has largely failed to respond, and hence the ocean and atmosphere have not reinforced each other,” states the bureau. “As a result, some cooling has now taken place in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with most of the key NINO regions returning to neutral values.”
Overall, Nebraska has seen below normal summer temperatures. While no one is complaining about the moisture in most areas of the state, there are concerns about replanted corn reaching maturity over the last few weeks of the growing season, as well as concerns with a potential early frost, which would obviously have adverse effects on replanted, late-planted, and long-season hybrids.

The Climate Prediction Center put out their September-November forecast on August 21, and overall, Nebraska has increased odds for above normal precipitation during the harvest months, as well as portions of the state possibly facing below normal temperatures. This brings concerns about the ability for crop maturity, as well as for drying down.

Area farmers might recall another moderate El Nino year—that of 2009-2010—and the challenges during that particular harvest, chief of which were difficulties with drying down and moist harvest conditions. If the predictions being made turn out to be true, farmers might be facing similar challenges during harvest 2014.

Do you have concerns about the upcoming harvest? Contact a UFARM land manager—they are happy to offer helpful advice for all your harvest and weather-related concerns.

United Farm and Ranch Management (UFARM) is a Nebraska-based company devoted to meeting landowners’ needs. UFARM offers a full range of Nebraska land management services, including real estate sales, rural property appraisals, consultations and crop insurance. UFARM has operated in Nebraska since the early 1930’s. Contact Us.

Sources consulted:
Johnston, Julianne. “Australians Downgrade El Nino Status to ‘Watch’.” ProFarmer. Farm Journal Media. 29 Jul. 2014. Web. 25 Aug. 2014.
Monroe, Matt. “How El Nino Will Affect Nebraska Next Year.” KMTV. KMTV Action 3 News. 06 Mar. 2014. Web. 25 Aug. 2014.
Williams, Tyler. “Nebraska Ag Climate Update.” Cropwatch. University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extension. 22 Aug. 2014. Web. 25 Aug. 2014.

Severe Weather Patterns Challenge Nebraska Farmers

Nebraska storm damage

Debris in field from the Pilger, Nebraska Tornado.

It’s severe weather season in Nebraska, and June has not disappointed. Nebraska has seen significant severe weather events over the last two weeks, with the widespread hailstorm that blanketed the area from areas north of Neligh to Norfolk to Blair on June 3rd, and the extreme tornadoes that affected areas of northeast Nebraska early this week. The now infamous June 16th twin tornadoes affected a wide area, causing damage in Stanton, nearly obliterating the town of Pilger, and taking two lives. The very next day, other tornadoes wreaked similar havoc in the towns of Coleridge, Hartington, Laurel, and Wakefield and surrounding rural areas.

With multiple storm chasers on each country mile, the prominence of social media, and a smart phone with amazing camera capabilities in every pocket, these terrifying events and their devastating effects on towns, farms, and fields are now captured in record numbers and reported quickly.

Farmers—and their insurance agents—in these areas have been busy assessing the damage from the wind and hail to their own crops, and are making  the sometimes difficult decision of whether or not to replant. If a large percentage of the field is severely affected, then replanting is often the best option, despite the late date. If a plant is severed below the growing point, the plant is dead and will not come out of it. With replanting, many crop experts say that the replanted crops would only yield about 50 to 55 percent of their normal potential at harvest. Good insurance can help greatly with these losses, however, and UNL Extension Crop Economist Cory Walters offers the following tips for qualifying for replanting payment:

  1. The insured crop must be hit with an insured peril (excess moisture, frost, hail, etc…).
  2. Your approved insurance provider must determine that it is practical to replant. (This is why it’s best to contact your insurance agent immediately.)
  3. Acres being replanted must have been initially planted on or after the earliest planting date.
  4. Appraised expected yield must be below 90% of the guarantee yield on acreage intended for replant.
  5. Acreage replanted must be at least the lesser of 20 acres or 20% of the insured planted acreage for the unit.
  6. Approved insurance provider must give consent to replant.

Making these decisions can be challenging, but the sooner a plan can be made and implemented, the better.

Our own UFARM area land managers report varying degrees of damage in their areas.

UFARM Land manager Jeff Frack, who is based in the Lincoln office says, “I am lucky, in that all of the crops on the farms I manage look great. We have had plenty of rain, and fortunately missed all of the hail.  [We are] a week to 2 weeks later than normal planting, but not late enough to be a concern.”

UFARM Operations Manager Chris Scow, also based in the Lincoln office reports,  “I would have a very similar report to Jeff’s earlier comments, [as] I mainly travel the same vicinity in which Jeff manages farms.  I did, however, have the occasion to travel up to Oakland, NE yesterday.  We traveled up Highway 77, as Oakland is approximately 30 miles north of Fremont.  As we drove through the area around Uehling, NE, I’d have to say I’ve rarely seen hail damage as significant as what that area experienced.  Many fields had recently been, or were currently being replanted.  Those that had not been replanted had very few plants still standing, or even visible, in them.  There was not a single leaf left on the trees; they looked like they were in the middle of winter. Houses had windows boarded up and significant damage to siding, roofs, etc.”

UFARM manager Randy Oertwich, based in the Norfolk office has been evaluating farms from Chapman to Scribner, and says that some farms were being replanted last week.

If you have questions or concerns about the state of your fields, and need advice on the options available to you after a severe weather event, please feel free to give us a call at 402.434.4498.

United Farm and Ranch Management (UFARM) is a Nebraska-based company devoted to meeting landowners’ needs. UFARM offers a full range of Nebraska land management services, including real estate sales, rural property appraisals, consultations and crop insurance. UFARM has operated in Nebraska since the early 1930’s.

Sources:  Walters, Cory. “Crop Insurance and Replant Decisions.” CropWatch. University of Nebraska-Lincoln. 15 May 2014. Web. 19 Jun. 2014.