Tag Archive for: Planting Intentions

Planting Intentions NebraskaTuesday, March 31st, farmers and market analysts focused their attention upon the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report for 2015, and while the numbers were within close distance of pre-report estimates, the amounts of prospective planting acres for corn and soybeans were farther apart than many had expected. Overall, the report numbers were bearish for new-crop corn, bullish for new-crop soybeans, and neutral for new-crop wheat.

Getting right to the numbers, the report estimated that farmers in the US will plant 89.2 million acres of corn during the upcoming planting season, a number that is down 2 percent from last year. Farmers will plant 84.6 million acres of soybeans, up 1 percent from one year ago. Overall, soybean acres will be higher in 21 of 31 major states for the crop.

As for the other portion of the report, Grain Stocks estimates showed 11 percent more corn supplies in the US versus that of one year ago, with 4.38 billion bushels stored. This is a 13 percent increase from one year ago. Consequently, corn stocks took a tumble yesterday, ending 18 cents lower by the end of the day.

Conversely, the report showed soybean stocks on hand to be at 1.333 billion bushels, slightly below the pre-report estimate of 1.341 billion bushels. As a result, soybeans ended up 3.75 cents yesterday.

For wheat, the report found quarterly wheat stocks at 1.124 billion bushels, also below the average pre-report estimate of 1.143 billion bushels. As for wheat acres, there were few surprises, with a report estimate of 13 million acres, compared to pre-report estimate of 13.24 million acres.

So, while the report wasn’t too far off expectations, farmers are still looking at lower corn prices for the foreseeable future. According to market analyst and broker Don Roose, “Tuesday’s grain stocks and numbers for both corn and soybeans, and their implications for overall acreage and stocks heading into the remainder of 2015, will be what takes charge of prices beyond planting season.” Next, the market’s attention will be focused on the weather, and at this point, it’s looking more favorable for the Midwest, and delayed in the mid-South and Delta.

“Right now, the outlook is for mild, below-normal temperatures in much of the Midwest, at least to start summer. That will benefit early crop development, though areas that are already on the dry side could stay that way, with rainfall prospects expected to be at or below normal through much of the summer in the Plains and Midwest,” says MDA Weather Services senior ag meteorologist Kyle Tapley.

Are you concerned about falling market prices, and wonder if your land is being put to its best use? Please feel free to contact a UFARM representative. We are glad to help.

Sources Consulted: Caldwell, Jeff. “Grain Stocks, Acreage Reports Send Corn Lower, Soybeans Higher.” Agriculture.com. Meredith Agrimedia. 31 Mar. 2015. Web. 01 Apr. 2015. Caldwell, Jeff. “Three Things to Watch This Morning, Wednesday, April 1st.” Agriculture.com. Meredith Agrimedia. 01 Apr. 2015. Web. 01 Apr. 2015. Newsom, Darin. “A Cliffhanger of Sorts.” DTN/The Progressive Farmer. DTN. 31 Mar. 2015. Web. 01 Apr. 2015.

2015 Soybean PlantingFollowing the last WASDE report from February 20th, analysts have been busy in their ongoing efforts to gauge the nation’s farmers’ cropping decisions. While this is no simple task, a few trends have emerged, and a clearer picture of the 2015 cropping landscape is emerging, with a few surprises.

According to the 2015 Grain and Oilseeds Outlook report, also released February 20th, and the USDA’s chief economist Robert Johansson, farmers will be planting less of every crop in 2015. While many did expect producers to back off from the crops with more expensive inputs, and fill those acres with less expensive crops, it appears that they are instead scaling back across the full spectrum. Looking specifically at the numbers, the USDA expects planted acres of corn, wheat, and soybeans to total 228 million acres in 2015, down 3.1 million acres from 2014. This overall decrease doesn’t come as a surprise, given lower overall commodity prices.

Naturally, many reports predicted beans to fill the void, with their lower cost of production. Trade guesses as to 2015 soybean projections range from 82.1-88.3 million acres, that high being 4.8 million acres above the record high 2014 numbers. On average, trade projections stand at a 2.8 million acre average above 2014 numbers.

However, the Grain and Oilseeds Report surprised the market by totally dismissing those increased soybean acres predictions, and went one further in predicting even fewer acres of soybeans planted in 2015. According to John Newton at the University of Illinois Agriculture and Consumer Economics Department: “For 2015, USDA projects planted acres of soybeans at 83.5 million acres. If realized, this total would represent a 200,000 acre decline from 2014, and is significantly less than the average trade guess of 86.0 million acres. With respect to harvested soybean acres, the USDA projection is for 82.6 million acres, down 500,000 acres from 2014, but 2.7 million acres less than the average trade guess of 85.3 million acres.”

Never a dull moment to be had in the grain market, Newton goes on to point out that, despite the lower-than-expected projections for harvested soybean acres, the USDA also predicts yields above market expectations. “These two measures effectively offset, and the projected size of the soybean crop is only 56 million bushels below the average trade guess of 3.856 billion bushels,” he says. Analysts will continue to monitor the consumption pace of 2014-15 soybeans, and will be able to see a clearer picture when the USDA’s Prospected Plantings report is released on March 31st. In the meantime, beyond the decision about which crops to plant or not plant, weather will be a big variable in the next two months.

Are you concerned about what cropping decisions will be best for your land and farming operation? Let UFARM offer their expert advice—they are glad to hear your concerns and come up with a sensible solution for your land.

Sources consulted: Floyd, Allison. “Farmers Will Plant Less Acres in 2015.” Growing Nebraska. Growing America. 20 Feb. 2015. Web. 02 Mar. 2015. Newton, John. “Projected Soybean Plantings Are Surprisingly Low.” Farmdoc Daily. Department of Agriculture and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. 23 Feb. 2015. Web. 02 Mar. 2015. Potter, Ben. “Projected Soybean Acres Surprisingly Low.” Agweb. Farm Journal. Feb. 2015. Web. 02 Mar. 2015.